Dangote-NNPC Deal Facing Challenges
The Dangote Petroleum Refinery is struggling to get enough crude oil from the Nigerian National Petroleum Company, with a shortfall of about 79.53 million barrels between October 2025 and mid-March 2026.
Data shows deliveries from NNPC ranged between roughly 21 and 33 per cent of monthly needs, leaving more than three-quarters of crude requirements unmet.
This shortfall is valued at around $5.4bn at average market prices, while total crude required for the period would cost roughly $7.39bn.
The shortage has contributed to rising fuel prices in Nigeria, with petrol currently above N1,300 per litre.
Dangote refinery has blamed the shortfall on local crude producers refusing to supply sufficient volumes, forcing it to rely on international markets.
NNPC officials said they are working to stabilise supply, including sourcing third-party crude at competitive international prices.
They stressed that temporary shortfalls were caused by previous front-sold crude volumes and that alternative sources are being explored.
The situation highlights challenges in boosting domestic refining while Nigeria continues exporting large volumes of crude.
Between January and October 2025, the country exported about 306 million barrels, leaving less crude for local refineries.
Industry experts warn that increasing feedstock supply to facilities like Dangote is essential to strengthen domestic refining and prevent further fuel price spikes.
