The Central Bank of Nigeria, CBN, has projected that the price of Premium Motor Spirit, PMS, commonly referred to as petrol, could increase to about N950 per litre in 2026.
At present, the Dangote Petroleum Refinery sells petrol at a gantry price of N699 per litre, while the pump price at MRS Oil, its authorised distributor, stands at N739 per litre.
However, in its 2026 Macroeconomic Outlook, the CBN based its projections on an assumed average crude oil price of $55 per barrel in 2026.
The bank also assumed an average exchange rate of N1,451.63/$ in the fourth quarter of 2025 and N1,400/$ in 2026, citing improved efficiency in the foreign exchange market, increased capital inflows, and a current account surplus as supporting factors.
In addition, the CBN assumed that domestic crude oil production would average about 1.5 million barrels per day throughout the forecast period.
Based on these assumptions, the CBN expects the price of Premium Motor Spirit (PMS) to remain around N950 per litre in 2026. The bank stated that increased private sector investment, particularly in domestic refining, would drive economic growth and help limit energy costs. It further noted that higher crude output, improved security around oil infrastructure, and expanding refining capacity would enhance supply conditions in 2026.
The CBN also forecast that headline inflation would decline to 12.94 per cent in 2026, from an estimated 21.26 per cent in 2025, attributing the anticipated slowdown to reduced food prices and easing PMS costs resulting from increased competition in the midstream sector.
Earlier, before December, Petroleumprice.ng stated: “Petrol sold at around N900 per litre or more in many locations. Prices fell after the Dangote Petroleum Refinery cut its ex-gantry rate from N828 to N699 per litre.
“The refinery then enforced a N739 per litre pump price through its partner, MRS Oil. When MRS outlets adopted the new rate in mid-December, rival stations lowered their prices to retain customers.”
Meanwhile, Dangote recently cautioned that petrol prices could surge to as much as N1,400 per litre if Nigeria returns to heavy dependence on fuel imports. In a statement, the refinery said large-scale domestic production has played a key role in stabilising the downstream market and reducing price volatility.
