The World Bank has projected that Nigeria’s economy is on course to record its fastest growth in more than a decade, revising its growth forecast for the country upward to 4.4 per cent for both 2026 and 2027.
The projection was contained in the World Bank’s latest Global Economic Prospects report released yesterday. The new forecast represents an increase of 0.7 and 0.6 percentage points from the earlier projections of 3.7 per cent and 3.8 per cent issued in June 2026.
According to the World Bank, “In Nigeria, growth edged up to 4.2 percent in 2025. The increase was driven by expansion in the services sector—especially the finance and information and communication technology sectors—a modest recovery in agriculture, and the country’s emergence as a net exporter of refined petroleum products.
“Growth in Nigeria is forecast to strengthen to 4.4 percent in both 2026 and 2027—the fastest pace in over a decade. This further firming of growth is anticipated to be underpinned by a continued expansion in services and a rebound in agricultural output, with a modest acceleration in the non-oil industry.
“Economic reforms, including in the tax system, along with continued prudent monetary policy, are expected to continue supporting activity.
“They are also expected to improve investor sentiment and reduce inflation further. Higher oil output is expected to offset lower international oil prices this year, helping to boost fiscal revenues and strengthen the external balance.”
Despite the optimistic outlook, the World Bank warned that maintaining this momentum would depend on Nigeria’s ability to tackle long-standing structural challenges. Although fiscal rules were introduced in 2007 to reduce exposure to oil revenue volatility, weak institutional frameworks have historically hampered enforcement, leading to inconsistent fiscal discipline.
The bank noted that current reform initiatives are targeted at addressing these structural constraints to ensure that the projected economic growth is both sustainable and inclusive.
On the global outlook, the World Bank stated: “The global economy is proving more resilient than anticipated despite persistent trade tensions and policy uncertainty, according to the World Bank’s latest Global Economic Prospects report. Global growth is projected to remain broadly steady over the next two years, easing to 2.6% in 2026 before rising to 2.7% in 2027, an upward revision from the June forecast.”
