A series of high-profile defections from the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) to the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) is transforming Nigeria’s political structure. The shift, driven by internal crises within the opposition, the desire for federal alignment, and political survival instincts, has taken shape 29 months after the current administration assumed office on May 29, 2023.
The ongoing defections have strengthened the APC’s dominance at all levels of government, leaving the opposition at its weakest point since 1999.
In recent weeks, governors, senators, and legislators from Enugu, Bauchi, Bayelsa, and Kaduna have joined the APC, consolidating the party’s control and altering the composition of both the National Assembly and various state legislatures across the country.
In 2023, soon after the general elections, Nigeria’s political environment appeared competitive. The PDP still held key states, while the Labour Party (LP) and the New Nigeria People’s Party (NNPP) had made significant progress, particularly in urban areas and among young voters.
However, two years later, the figures reveal a different reality. The APC now controls more than two-thirds of the 36 states in the federation. In the Senate, it holds 75 out of 109 seats, leaving the PDP with about 26, while smaller parties share the remaining positions.
In the House of Representatives, the ruling party now boasts over 200 members. These shifts followed the recent defections of key political figures, including three PDP lawmakers from Kaduna, Senator Kaila Dahuwa Samaila representing Bauchi North, and Enugu State Governor Peter Mbah. Each of them cited internal divisions within their former party and the need to “align” with the Renewed Hope Agenda of the federal government.
Mbah explained that his defection followed careful consideration and wide consultation, noting that his decision was made in the best interest of the people. Samaila, in his letter to Senate President Godswill Akpabio, stated that the PDP had severely “constrained” his ability to serve effectively, adding that he sought “a more progressive platform that embodies good governance, unity, progress, and discipline.”
The continuous wave of defections has further weakened the PDP and reduced its legislative presence nationwide.
In Bayelsa State, Governor Douye Diri and 17 members of the state assembly defected from the PDP last week, giving the APC almost total control of the 24-member legislature.
In the North-West, the PDP caucus in Kaduna’s House of Representatives also collapsed as three members joined the ruling APC. Their letters, read during plenary, cited a “lingering crisis” in the PDP as their reason for leaving.
This growing trend has reignited discussions about Nigeria’s political diversity and the health of its multiparty democracy. Analysts observe that since the return of democracy in 1999, no single party has ever achieved this level of dominance across both the executive and legislative arms of government.
The immediate impact of APC’s strengthened majority is a smoother legislative process. With large numbers in both chambers, the party can easily pass executive-backed bills, approve key appointments without lengthy opposition, and synchronise policymaking between state and federal governments.
However, experts warn that the reduction in opposition voices could weaken parliamentary oversight. Several committees that were once chaired by opposition members are now being restructured under APC control.
Former Vice President Atiku Abubakar, reacting to the rising defections, said that while freedom of association is a constitutional right, democratic institutions can only thrive when the rule of law, credible elections, and accountability are maintained.
At the state level, economic and administrative factors are also influencing these defections. Many governors and legislators see alignment with the federal government as a necessary step to secure federal projects, budgetary allocations, and political influence.
A senior PDP official in the South-East, who requested anonymity, stated that following Governor Mbah’s defection, “party leaders in Enugu were under pressure to follow suit to maintain relevance.”
A similar situation has been reported in Taraba State, where discussions are ongoing regarding Governor Agbu Kefas’s possible move to the APC.
This current political trend mirrors past realignments, such as the 2014 wave of defections when several PDP governors crossed over to the then-opposition APC ahead of the 2015 elections.
However, unlike 2014, this present movement flows in the opposite direction, with politicians moving toward consolidation under the ruling party.
While the APC describes the surge in defections as proof of “national confidence” in its leadership, civil society organisations have raised concerns that the diminishing strength of the opposition could threaten Nigeria’s democratic stability.
They warn that without viable alternative parties, voters will have fewer genuine options, and parliamentary debates may lose their vitality.
Observers have compared the current situation to the final years of the First Republic when unchecked dominance by the ruling coalition contributed to political unrest.
The Centre for Democracy and Development (CDD), in a recent statement, cautioned that “defections, while legal, risk turning Nigeria’s multiparty democracy into a one-party environment where dissent is weakened and accountability diluted.”
For now, the APC’s influence remains firmly established. With both federal and state governments aligned, it has an opportunity to implement reforms more effectively than previous administrations. However, whether this consolidated power strengthens governance or suppresses competition will depend on how it is used.
The changing political environment leaves the PDP and smaller parties facing tough decisions — to rebuild, merge, or risk political extinction. As Nigeria approaches the 2027 elections, one thing is clear: the balance of power has shifted decisively. The opposition’s decline may be legal, but its implications for Nigeria’s democracy are serious and ongoing.
Currently, the numbers tell a clear story: from 20 governors in 2023, the APC now controls 26; the PDP has dropped from 14 to 8, while LP, APGA, and NNPP each govern only one state. These figures highlight how swiftly Nigeria’s political power structure has changed and the uphill battle the opposition faces in reclaiming lost ground.
